Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics
The average figure of daily murders each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that homicide numbers might not indicate better national stability.
Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers
Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This data was provided by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.
“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the smallest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.
Historical Context and Government Plan
Fierce organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.
That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.
At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”
The key elements of the President's security plan include:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
- Increased coordination between various agencies.
Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns
However, security analysts cautioned that using murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true considering the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.
“It would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”
As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.
“Data on murders is no longer useful for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the will to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly concerning because it could obscure days when there were particularly high levels of killings.
“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.
Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success
An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration
However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.
A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.
“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.
